El Nino ramping up into a ‘very strong' weather event as index surges

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Nino3.4 index highest since 2008 as of October 25, while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event is underway, says Australian Met body

By Srikrishnan PC

Updated - October 27, 2026 at 06:18 PM. | Chennai

El Nino conditions are ramping up, with a strong to very strong event likely to continue through January to March 2027, with a greater than 83 per cent chance. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway, according to global weather agencies.

According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the US, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), ‘above-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific indicate the potential for significant climate impacts in the coming months.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said the weekly relative Niño3.4 index reached a record +2.88 °C for the week ending October 25, the highest value in the bureau’s weekly sea surface temperature (SST) dataset, which dates from 2008. 

“A positive IOD event is underway. The IOD index has exceeded the positive IOD threshold (greater than or equal to +0.4 °C) for 7 consecutive weeks, reaching +0.69 °C for the week ending 25 October 2026, with positive values forecast to continue,” it said in its latest update on Southern Hemisphere monitoring.

El Nino signals

CPC said the atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Nino.

During the past four weeks, much of the world’s oceans have seen above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Equatorial SSTs were near or below average in the region near Indonesia. SST anomalies were positive in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western and eastern Atlantic Ocean. SSTs were above average in the equatorial Pacific, with the anomaly enhanced east of the Date Line.

Above-average SSTs were widespread across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and below-average SSTs were noted near and west of the Date Line.

In the East Central and Eastern Pacific Oceans and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, positive equatorial SST anomaly changes were observed over the past four weeks. Negative equatorial SST changes were found in the western Indian Ocean, said the US weather organisation.

The Australian weather body said all models, including the bureau’s, forecast the warming in the tropical Pacific to peak around November or December, and remain above El Nino thresholds into autumn 2027.

“Relative Nino3.4 values are forecast to exceed the highest levels observed since reliable records began in 1950,” it said, reiterating the observation of organisations such as the World Meteorological Organization.

Warming waters

The US report said that for the past two months, subsurface temperatures have been above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

Below-average OLR (enhanced convection and precipitation) was noted near the equator from near the Date Line to the eastern Pacific.

Above-average OLR (suppressed convection and precipitation) was observed over the Philippines, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.

IOD to continue

El Nino is expected to remain through Mar-May 2027. ENSO neutral is favoured during April-June and May-July 2027, the CPC said.

BoM said the positive IOD is likely to continue through November, with a return to neutral in early summer (December–February). This is consistent with all international models assessed and the typical IOD life cycle, the BoM report added.

Published on October 27, 2026

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